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The Fall/Winter 2022 season marked an explosive start to the first fashion season post-pandemic. Across the main cities, nearly all major designers returned to the fashion week roster with physical runway presentations.
The recent Fall/Winter 2022 fashion weeks unveiled a plethora of up-and-coming trends inspired by a world no longer plagued by a pandemic. From ultra micro mini skirts to monochrome ensembles, many of the designer collections were centralised around going out, parties and heading back to work. Some of the season’s mega trends have already crept their way onto the racks of Zara, H&M, Urban Outfiiters and more as they become viral online.
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FW22’s key runway trends. From left: Miu Miu, Diesel, Louis Vuitton, Coperni and Valentino. Image credit: Vogue.
While some of these trends may work on the runway, only a handful would translate for the average consumer. The challenge for buyers and merchandisers this season would be balancing this year’s bolder, more maximalist styles with wearable pieces that work for the day-to-day.
To help you determine the right FW22 trends to incorporate into your assortment, we’ve detailed the steps on how to validate runway trends for your market with data-backed analysis.
Step 1: External research on the FW22 trends
Firstly, identify the season’s biggest trends based on external research. Reliable sources for runway trend reports include fashion publications such as Business of Fashion, Women’s Wear Daily, Vogue or Harper’s Bazaar.
Identify common trends highlighted by these publications and shortlist the trends you want to validate. Be sure to pay close attention to the design details such as silhouettes or hemlines and the colour palettes associated with the trend to help in the merchandising process.
For example, a major trend seen during the FW22 season was the use of leather across various silhouettes. A central piece around Gabriela Hearst’s and Chloe’s collection was leather coats and outerwear. Renowned for its leatherwork, Fendi and Bottega Veneta presented head-to-toe leather suits, along with signature bags and accessories. Leather-patched jackets were also seen on the runways of Balmain and Dior who incorporated leather-corsettery as the main accessory for many of its looks.
Step 2: Validate particular trending details against market demand
Once the trends have been identified, you can understand the market demand for this particular trend using Omnilytics’ Trend Performance module. By using keywords or filters, you can analyse how a specific trend is performing in your market.
Focusing on the leather trend highlighted earlier, it had already begun trending during last year’s Fall/Winter season according to Omnilytics data. During the September to December ‘21 period, leather was one of the few uptrending materials with a trendscore of 1.1.
A deeper analysis into leather’s trend progression showed stable movement, maintaining constant demand throughout the period, despite a slight dip in mid-November ‘21. Nearly 48% of the leather products found in the US, UK, France and Italy markets were found in Shoes, followed by Bags and Accessories. The data also indicated 28% of leather products sold were black, while only 11% were brown.
A closer look at the trending categories showed mostly non-apparel products as the top performing categories with the exception of Outerwear with a trendscore of 0.3. Data from Outerwear specified Coats and Vests as the main sub-categories generating demand.
Step 3: Understanding last year’s trend movement and performance
Data from the Fall/Winter period last year showed retailers had a spike in leather stock intake in September ‘21 with over 223,000 SKUs. The volume of leather new-ins reduced slightly in the months of October to November but increased massively again in December ‘21 with more than 233,000 SKUs as the temperatures lowered significantly.
Despite the high number of new-ins, retailers were also seen discounting a large number of leather products during this period. Overall, more than 552,000 SKUs were newly discounted from September to December ‘21, representing nearly 60% of the leather products on the market - November registered the highest number of newly discounted SKUs at over 159,000.
Sell-out rate showed only 40% of the leather products sold during this period had sold-out at full price. This indicates a pricing discrepancy may have hindered sales despite the strong demand for leather products.
Step 4: Conclude if the trend is suitable for your assortment
Based on the data insights provided, we can conclude leather was a key performing trend during the Fall/Winter period last year. Bags, accessories and outerwear were the main categories that generated demand. Retailers began stocking up on leather products in September, followed by another massive stock in December when the weather got colder.
As the cost price for natural materials like leather tends to be higher, retailers will need to pay close attention to the margins as full price did not generate a high sell-out in the previous year.
Navigating runway trends with data
Utilising data to navigate fashion’s ever-changing trend cycle allows brands and retailers to understand its trajectory within a market. As seen previously, not all runway trends are able to translate into commercial success. By analysing the previous performance of a trend, brands and retailers can gauge consumer demand and determine how a trend would be received in their market.
Identifying the top performing categories, colours and pricing strategies can also guide the buying and merchandising processes for a more accurate assortment or product edit and reduce the risk of overstock.
About the Author
Sufiana Sharuddin
Sufiana Sharuddin is a published fashion writer, honing her interest in the industry during her time at Condé Nast College of Fashion and Design. She currently covers a variety of topics within the industry including business, technology, trends and current affairs.
